Shuttle started at 1:10 and ended with 1:90 chance of loss of crew. That was bad and got it canceled as soon as the station was built, and supposedly ISS was finished only because international obligations. The last mission to extend Hubble's life was almost canceled because the NASA admin thought it was too dangerous.
NASA wanted 1:270 (so just "3 times safer than shuttle at the end of the shuttle program") from commercial crew (i.e. SpaceX Crew Dragon and Boeing Starliner).
Current US law for commercial space works on consent: passengers sign a waiver saying they know it's dangerous, and then the company doesn't have to promise safety the way an airline does. The company is on the hook for debris and innocent bystanaders on the ground though.
SpaceX plan to fly Starship a lot and gain so much experience they can find and fix all problems and reach airline safety. At least private jet level of safety, at a start.
Right, those are historical numbers, not design specs. I was asking for the design spec. Ie, in order to say whether it was “safe enough” the historical numbers either exceed the requirement spec (or not), like what exists for CCP.
There are multiple layers of risk consent, from engineering, safety, medical, and crew, for NASA. Of those, I think crew are the least likely to say no because they tend to come from a very risk tolerant population.
Shuttle started at 1:10 and ended with 1:90 chance of loss of crew. That was bad and got it canceled as soon as the station was built, and supposedly ISS was finished only because international obligations. The last mission to extend Hubble's life was almost canceled because the NASA admin thought it was too dangerous.
NASA wanted 1:270 (so just "3 times safer than shuttle at the end of the shuttle program") from commercial crew (i.e. SpaceX Crew Dragon and Boeing Starliner).
Current US law for commercial space works on consent: passengers sign a waiver saying they know it's dangerous, and then the company doesn't have to promise safety the way an airline does. The company is on the hook for debris and innocent bystanaders on the ground though.
SpaceX plan to fly Starship a lot and gain so much experience they can find and fix all problems and reach airline safety. At least private jet level of safety, at a start.
There are multiple layers of risk consent, from engineering, safety, medical, and crew, for NASA. Of those, I think crew are the least likely to say no because they tend to come from a very risk tolerant population.
Whatever official spec that did or did not exist is irrelevant.