[−]somenameforme · 2026-11-15 Sun 13:25 UTC ·
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Mars early on will also not be closed cycle. It's going to be prepping for a 2 year journey (probably ideally 4 if possible, for when things inevitably go wrong) and gradually consuming those supplies. Unlike the ISS there are vast usable resources on Mars for things like water, but again I think the goal will be to be fully non-sufficient, to help reduce the chances of the first trip being a one-way journey.
Things to notice: it's undergoing yearly upgrades despite NASA having literally decades of experience in this. They still hold a contingency reserve of 8OOL, despite being hours from the ground and being able to evacuate almost any time.
SpaceX has zero experience managing the water cycle even when it's measured in months, much less years, with spares and help many months away in the very best case. They show zero effort trying to acquire such experience.
Let's be real: at this point, Mars for Musk is about as much of a goal as Hyperloop. If we look at actions, not mere words, his goal looks much more like yeeting more GPUs into orbit as a "biological bootloader" [1] than colonising Mars. That's not even touching the fact that SpaceX is now a public company, has a duty for its shareholders, and colonising Mars is a strictly cash-negative enterprise.
Things to notice: it's undergoing yearly upgrades despite NASA having literally decades of experience in this. They still hold a contingency reserve of 8OOL, despite being hours from the ground and being able to evacuate almost any time.
SpaceX has zero experience managing the water cycle even when it's measured in months, much less years, with spares and help many months away in the very best case. They show zero effort trying to acquire such experience.
Let's be real: at this point, Mars for Musk is about as much of a goal as Hyperloop. If we look at actions, not mere words, his goal looks much more like yeeting more GPUs into orbit as a "biological bootloader" [1] than colonising Mars. That's not even touching the fact that SpaceX is now a public company, has a duty for its shareholders, and colonising Mars is a strictly cash-negative enterprise.
[1]: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2106906678293606496