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Comment by dgroshev | original | SpaceX catches the Starship to end Flight 15
[−]dgroshev · 2026-11-15 Sun 17:37 UTC · link
You keep speaking in generalities. Here's an extremely high level overview of just one critically important system on the ISS, water recovery: https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20260004140/downloads/20...

Things to notice: it's undergoing yearly upgrades despite NASA having literally decades of experience in this. They still hold a contingency reserve of 8OOL, despite being hours from the ground and being able to evacuate almost any time.

SpaceX has zero experience managing the water cycle even when it's measured in months, much less years, with spares and help many months away in the very best case. They show zero effort trying to acquire such experience.

Let's be real: at this point, Mars for Musk is about as much of a goal as Hyperloop. If we look at actions, not mere words, his goal looks much more like yeeting more GPUs into orbit as a "biological bootloader" [1] than colonising Mars. That's not even touching the fact that SpaceX is now a public company, has a duty for its shareholders, and colonising Mars is a strictly cash-negative enterprise.

[1]: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2106906678293606496