The jury’s still out on whether Starship needs fast reusability, too. The existing market for heavy lift launches is tiny. Starlink creates some demand, but beyond that SpaceX seems to be placing an incredible amount of faith in the idea that if you build it they will come.
But what happens if there isn’t actually that much pent-up, latent demand for flinging heavy things into orbit? What happens if people still mostly want to launch the same size stuff they already do? Starship could become the paratransit shuttle of space: inexpensive, yes, but also inconvenient because of having to share the ride with so many other people that all have different destinations and schedules. In that case we might see that demand for Starship remains low due to potential customers deciding the extra cost of a different option is worth the added convenience. Anyone who’s chosen an Uber even though the city bus can get them to their destination for 1/10 the price should be familiar with the principle.
> The existing market for heavy lift launches is tiny
I can see the value in this though if we end up developing space and Moon, and a vehicle like this could open the doors for that, unlike now. If China has long term plans for that, it's probably a good indicator of future market.
That’s such a big if, though. Not just around how long it will take. Around whether it will happen at all. There are still a bunch of unknowns that need to be resolved before we can know whether any such plans are economically viable. What I’ve personally observed is that a lot of these ideas look great when presented as concept art, but iffy at best once you start trying to do any back of the envelope estimates.
That certainly doesn’t mean it will never happen or that it’s not worth trying. But I’ve noticed that in these online discussions there’s a tendency to treat moonshot programs as if they’re sure bets.
Also don’t forget social factors. The US had been actively working on establishing more of a presence on the moon, too. But the current administration more-or-less killed it because they didn’t like how much it was costing.
[−]burnerRhodov3 · 2026-11-15 Sun 17:12 UTC ·
link
You are right, they will repeat what they did with falcon.. They created the demand. They created starlink because they created so much capacity, they needed to put it somewhere. Now they will create Starlink v3 to completely dominate the internet market worldwide. Ontop of starlink V3, they have Starlink V4 in the works which will include direct to cell capability along with building land based towers worldwide. Finally, they have Starmind, for orbital compute.
They don't need/ want to sell capacity. They want to constrain the capacity for themselves, which is obviously the better business move. Look at falcon 9 launches... It's not like they drastically lowered their pricing, they've been raising there pricing dramatically because they want to phase falcon 9 out.
SpaceX seems to be rather foolishly planning on completely replacing the Falcon 9 and Falcon heavy with Starship which is going to create demand for it.
I don’t think it’s foolish, for more or less the above reason. Starlink is the market for Falcon 9. Without that it apparently isn’t so profitable, because outside of Starlink the demand for a system with that kind of launch cadence just didn’t really materialize.
But that’s also why I’m skeptical about whether Starship will live up to the hype. The whole case for how it’s supposed to revolutionize spaceflight rests on the assumption that it can tap into a huge well of latent demand to put stuff in orbit. If such a well really does exist then we have to ask why Falcon 9 wasn’t able to tap into it despite all of its obvious merits.
But what happens if there isn’t actually that much pent-up, latent demand for flinging heavy things into orbit? What happens if people still mostly want to launch the same size stuff they already do? Starship could become the paratransit shuttle of space: inexpensive, yes, but also inconvenient because of having to share the ride with so many other people that all have different destinations and schedules. In that case we might see that demand for Starship remains low due to potential customers deciding the extra cost of a different option is worth the added convenience. Anyone who’s chosen an Uber even though the city bus can get them to their destination for 1/10 the price should be familiar with the principle.
I can see the value in this though if we end up developing space and Moon, and a vehicle like this could open the doors for that, unlike now. If China has long term plans for that, it's probably a good indicator of future market.
That certainly doesn’t mean it will never happen or that it’s not worth trying. But I’ve noticed that in these online discussions there’s a tendency to treat moonshot programs as if they’re sure bets.
Also don’t forget social factors. The US had been actively working on establishing more of a presence on the moon, too. But the current administration more-or-less killed it because they didn’t like how much it was costing.
They don't need/ want to sell capacity. They want to constrain the capacity for themselves, which is obviously the better business move. Look at falcon 9 launches... It's not like they drastically lowered their pricing, they've been raising there pricing dramatically because they want to phase falcon 9 out.
But that’s also why I’m skeptical about whether Starship will live up to the hype. The whole case for how it’s supposed to revolutionize spaceflight rests on the assumption that it can tap into a huge well of latent demand to put stuff in orbit. If such a well really does exist then we have to ask why Falcon 9 wasn’t able to tap into it despite all of its obvious merits.