> The existing market for heavy lift launches is tiny
I can see the value in this though if we end up developing space and Moon, and a vehicle like this could open the doors for that, unlike now. If China has long term plans for that, it's probably a good indicator of future market.
That’s such a big if, though. Not just around how long it will take. Around whether it will happen at all. There are still a bunch of unknowns that need to be resolved before we can know whether any such plans are economically viable. What I’ve personally observed is that a lot of these ideas look great when presented as concept art, but iffy at best once you start trying to do any back of the envelope estimates.
That certainly doesn’t mean it will never happen or that it’s not worth trying. But I’ve noticed that in these online discussions there’s a tendency to treat moonshot programs as if they’re sure bets.
Also don’t forget social factors. The US had been actively working on establishing more of a presence on the moon, too. But the current administration more-or-less killed it because they didn’t like how much it was costing.
I can see the value in this though if we end up developing space and Moon, and a vehicle like this could open the doors for that, unlike now. If China has long term plans for that, it's probably a good indicator of future market.
That certainly doesn’t mean it will never happen or that it’s not worth trying. But I’ve noticed that in these online discussions there’s a tendency to treat moonshot programs as if they’re sure bets.
Also don’t forget social factors. The US had been actively working on establishing more of a presence on the moon, too. But the current administration more-or-less killed it because they didn’t like how much it was costing.