> But even now, Starship is probably safer than SLS ever will be. If not now, then very, very soon.
Any failure to orbit is essentially a guaranteed loss for Starship. Any booster explosion or total engine failure on starship would also be essentially a guaranteed loss. Even the space shuttle had better backup options than the current version of starship.
Idk about you, but if I'm the astronaut I'd take 1-(P(SLS failure)*P(LES/parachute failure)) over P(superheavy success)*P(Starship to orbit)*P(Raptor relight) every time.
Any failure to orbit is essentially a guaranteed loss for Starship. Any booster explosion or total engine failure on starship would also be essentially a guaranteed loss. Even the space shuttle had better backup options than the current version of starship.
Idk about you, but if I'm the astronaut I'd take 1-(P(SLS failure)*P(LES/parachute failure)) over P(superheavy success)*P(Starship to orbit)*P(Raptor relight) every time.