So cost is a funny thing. You have to amortize the program cost across the launches. So far the program cost is at least $15 billion [1]. This is a huge multiple (40x+) of the original Falcon 9 program, which was expendable originally and has gone through many upgrades since obviously. But Starship also isn't done. We also don't know how many uses each Starship stack will get and what the refurbishment cost will be. I think it's safe to say there'll need to be continued development just like there has been with Falcon 9.
As for the whole 10x the payload, well that goes back to a big chunk of my comment. The only real demand for this is Starlink. Nobody else needs this kind of capacity in volume. Exactly how many launches are required depends entirely on how large the constellation gets. that could be anywhere from 10,000 to 40,000+. That'll be driven by demand for satellite broadband. I've seen estimates on Starlink-related Starship launches anywhere from 30 to 150 per year.
But how much demand is there really? The receivers are expensive. Wired broadband is superior wherever it's available. Obviously there are some use cases (eg ships, planes) where being mobile is required.
I spent a little time looking into how realistic phone-based Starlink is and... it's not particularly realistic. Phone transmitters are too weak. You'd lose service inside because the phone is too low powered. And more power means a bigger, hotter phone with less battery life. This is a significant disadvantage to terrestrial 5G and is arguably a limit of physics. After all, an iPhone's signal doesn't need to travel 300-600km.
So there's a market for Starlink but is it enough to sustain a $15-30B program cost and 100 Starship launches a year? The jury is out. And if there isn't that demand, it gets a whole lot more expensive because you need to amortize the program cost over fewer launches.
Oh, and new capabilities means redeveloping the capability to carry crew, assuming we have some space station to replace the ISS. The original Crew Dragon was meant to support up to 6-7 crew. There was no demand for that so it got scaled back to 4. Well, what's a 10x payload going to do if you can't even fill 6 seats on Crew Dragon?
As for your launch cadence predictions, I'd argue they're optimistic but not wildly optimistic. I think it's going to take some time to scale up. But the Moon by 2030? No shot. This requires in-orbit refueling, some kind of lunar lander, some kind of crew vehicle and certification for all of the above. If this happens by 2035 I'll be pleasantly surprised.
As for the whole 10x the payload, well that goes back to a big chunk of my comment. The only real demand for this is Starlink. Nobody else needs this kind of capacity in volume. Exactly how many launches are required depends entirely on how large the constellation gets. that could be anywhere from 10,000 to 40,000+. That'll be driven by demand for satellite broadband. I've seen estimates on Starlink-related Starship launches anywhere from 30 to 150 per year.
But how much demand is there really? The receivers are expensive. Wired broadband is superior wherever it's available. Obviously there are some use cases (eg ships, planes) where being mobile is required.
I spent a little time looking into how realistic phone-based Starlink is and... it's not particularly realistic. Phone transmitters are too weak. You'd lose service inside because the phone is too low powered. And more power means a bigger, hotter phone with less battery life. This is a significant disadvantage to terrestrial 5G and is arguably a limit of physics. After all, an iPhone's signal doesn't need to travel 300-600km.
So there's a market for Starlink but is it enough to sustain a $15-30B program cost and 100 Starship launches a year? The jury is out. And if there isn't that demand, it gets a whole lot more expensive because you need to amortize the program cost over fewer launches.
Oh, and new capabilities means redeveloping the capability to carry crew, assuming we have some space station to replace the ISS. The original Crew Dragon was meant to support up to 6-7 crew. There was no demand for that so it got scaled back to 4. Well, what's a 10x payload going to do if you can't even fill 6 seats on Crew Dragon?
As for your launch cadence predictions, I'd argue they're optimistic but not wildly optimistic. I think it's going to take some time to scale up. But the Moon by 2030? No shot. This requires in-orbit refueling, some kind of lunar lander, some kind of crew vehicle and certification for all of the above. If this happens by 2035 I'll be pleasantly surprised.
[1]: https://kfgo.com/2026/05/01/exclusive-spacex-spending-on-sta...